Baccarat Odds and Rules -The Ultimate Guide

Author: Joseph Havens Updated:
Baccarat Odds and Rules

Take a look at this extensive article to discover everything about baccarat probabilities, player odds, housed edge and rules.

Baccarat is a highly popular casino game that has survived through centuries because of its low house edge and entertaining gameplay. In the olden days, only the rich could sit at a baccarat table. Now baccarat is not only for the elites, since many high-tier gambling sites provide this game with average and low-limit stakes.

Baccarat is highly rewarding if you know how to play it. But first, you have to be able to read its odds. Great thing you chose this game because baccarat has the best chances of winning in the casino. Find out everything you need to know about baccarat winning odds below!

Baccarat Odds

Baccarat-Odds

The odds for a player hand to win in baccarat is 44.62%, while the banker hand probability of winning is 45.85%. The chance of a tie is just 9.53%. But if you don’t factor in a tie, the dealer has a 51% chance of winning.

Baccarat odds play an important role in determining baccarat house edge and payouts. How? Keep reading to find out.

Baccarat House Edge

Every game is inbuilt with a casino statistical advantage; for baccarat, it is 1.06%. With a round mainly resulting in a banker or player win, it’s no wonder why baccarat’s house edge is very small. But even at that, one may ask, “why does the casino have an advantage at all in baccarat? The answer is due to the game’s design.

In every baccarat game, the player bets first, meaning the dealer is privy to every information before the player. For instance, if the player draws a third card, the dealer determines whether to take an additional card based on the third card value of the gambler. That is the primary reason why betting on banker or player bet has slightly different chances of winning at 45.86% and 44.62%, respectively.

Since everyone will likely bet on the banker anyway, casinos introduced a vigorish or juice in the form of a 5% commission on banker baccarat payouts. So, if you bet $20 and win, you would get a payout of $19 instead of $20.

  • House Edge On Banker Bet

The banker has a favourable advantage of 1.06%. Theoretically, banker bet wins 46% of the time because the game favours it. The dealer plays his move last after deciding based on what the player draws. This is one of the best baccarat odds because a banker bet is highly effective and quite simple.

However, the payout of this bet comes with a 5% commission. A $10 wager on this bet would get you $9.5 instead of 10. This indirectly increases the casino advantage. Some casinos have a strict minimum commission that may also have a toll on your banker payout.

  • House Edge On Player Bet

Player bet has a mathematical advantage of 1.24% only because it plays its moves first. It is considered the second most profitable baccarat bet. However, the bet pays 1:1. So, if you bet $20 on it and player’s hand is closest to 9, you would receive $20.

Banker Versus Player Win Odds

Banker-Versus-Player-Win-Odds

So which hand should you wager? The banker bet still takes the win. It is the only bet with the highest chances of winning. The player bet only comes second, and the tie wager is simply a no-no.

The banker should still be your first choice, with all things being equal. However, the 5% commission the house charges on the dealer makes betting on player look appealing.

Though it may seem inconsequential, this cut can eat into your winnings over time. With some casinos introducing minimum commissions that may be as little as $1, banker bets may be more expensive than you think.

So ensure you are aware of your chosen casino’s rules before settling for the dealer hand only. Also, don’t forget that baccarat is still a game of luck; it is not confirmed that a banker bet will always win.

Tie Odds

The tie bet pays 8:1, but it is not advisable to place it. The bet offers a high house advantage of 14% and little odds of winning. Although it is possible, the chances of a game ending in a tie are very low. It’s a 1 in 10 shot, and in gambling, these odds don’t look promising. Many baccarat experts recommend using a player bet, which comes with 1:1 odds or the banker that has 0.95:1.

Baccarat Odds Versus Similar Games

With 1.06% for the banker and 1.24% for the player, the baccarat house edge is lower compared to other table games at the casino. For instance, roulette has a massive high advantage of 5.26%. So, you are likely to win more rounds wagering on baccarat than roulette.

However, blackjack has a house advantage of 0.5%. This makes it the only game in the casino better than baccarat in terms of odds. Remember that individual house edges are theoretical and may not entirely capture what happens in reality. Also, the casino wins in the long run irrespective of the winning rate a game may have.

How Are Baccarat Odds Calculated

How-Are-Baccarat-Odds-Calculated

 A standard baccarat game uses a deck of 52 cards. There are 13 possible values and four possible suits in a deck. We don’t use suits in baccarat, so we consider them irrelevant in this calculation.

We break down 52 cards into 13 decks with four possible equivalent card values to get the player’s odds. (Each card appearing four times)

10s, Jacks, Kings and Queens are valued as 0 and, therefore, add no point to the total score. So, simplifying the deck, we have 16 cards that add no point to the relative score and four cards adding 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9.

So instead of 52, we arrive at 10^6 = 1,000,000 combinations. In total, there are 14658134400 winning baccarat probabilities. We can calculate our player and banker baccarat odds using these figures.

For the player

From a total of 14658134400 baccarat winning combinations, this is expected to win 6548674432. So for this type of bet, the baccarat winning odds is 6548674432 / 14658134400 = 0.44676.

For The banker

Using the statistics above, this is estimated to win 6737232640. So, our probability is calculated as 6737232640/14658134400, thereby giving us a final score of 0.45962

No doubt, baccarat odds are difficult to calculate. But we have simplified this for you. There is no reason to worry yourself about complex mathematics. Just play the game and have fun while at it.