Canadian football betting strategy - Complete guide

Author: Hailey Campbell Updated:
Football betting strategies

Canada is known for many things, one of which is its unique football style.

Of all the sports played in this jurisdiction, football stands out due to features such as its large playing field, energetic gameplay, and complex rules.

What you’ll learn

The popularity of Canadian football can also be seen in the number of wagers it garners at sportsbooks.

You’re on the right page if you wish to bet on Canadian football but don’t know how. This article serves as a football betting strategy guide, especially on the CFL.

Thus, you’ll discover:

  • The best Canadian football strategy
  • Tips for betting on football in Canada
  • The differences between the American Football League and Canadian Football League

Football betting strategy for soccer vs CFL vs NFL

Strategy Results in Soccer Results in NFL Results in CFL

Arbitrage

0

0

Value

Matched

Lay

0

0

Adapt your strategy to the sport you bet on

We thoroughly researched all strategies listed within this article. The results are displayed in the table above.

The top-right arrow shows that the betting system is effective on a particular sport, while 0 signifies that it failed to work. Intuitively, the arrow oriented downwards suggests a decrease.

A betting strategy can have separate results depending on the sports you bet on.

This is because some are formulated with specific sports in mind: for instance, you couldn’t use a football betting strategy successfully on a basketball match.

NFL vs CFL core differences

NFL vs CFL core differences

As you may already know, the American Football League (NFL) differs from the Canadian one (CFL) in many aspects.

Therefore, American and Canadian matches may each require a distinct football betting strategy, and we’ll help you learn why:

  • CFL features 12 players, while there are 11 in NFL
  • Three downs per possession in CFL vs 4 in NFL
  • CFL features a bigger playing field (110 yards long 65 yards wide) than NFL (100 yards long and 53 and ⅓ yards wide)
  • There is no fair catch rule in Canadian football
  • In CFL, any kick that enters the end zone is a live call, except for successful field goals
  • In CFL, all players are allowed to start moving behind the scrimmage line before the snap
  • Overtime rules differ, with NFL’s being similar to the start of a regular game, while CFL’s are more like college football overtime rules

Tested tips for betting on football

Now that you know the basics, it’s the perfect time to dive right into the best ways to create the best football betting strategy.

Here’s what you should do:

Start analyzing your games now

Start analyzing your games now

Your success rate won’t be very high if you wager on a team without analyzing its previous games.

By checking the statistics and background of the team, you can understand how they performed against others in their previous games. This allows you to notice:

  • Weaknesses
  • The team’s most skilled players
  • Their performance rates when playing at home vs playing away
  • What they base their success on
  • The reasons why they performed poorly in certain matches
  • The players’ collaboration skills and how they affect the match outcome

Any football betting strategy you may devise after taking all this information into account will have a much higher accuracy rate than your initial one.

Statistics

Statistics are the most concrete details available regarding sports. This is ideal when creating a football betting strategy, as they allow you to make predictions.

To make the best out of statistics, follow these steps:

  • Find a good CFL stats provider
  • Look at the teams’ past matches
  • Compare expected touchdowns and other indicators
  • Compare the calibre and delivery of the members of each team
  • Look for the home and away stats of each team and the results in their past three matches

Tipsters

Tipsters regularly provide information on the possible outcomes of sporting events.

Top-notch tipsters are well-informed about the sport; they do all the analysis and advise you on who and how much to bet.

Their tips could help you improve your football betting strategy. However, like all other sports, Canadian football is unpredictable and prone to surprises, so don’t rely exclusively on advice.

Watch the weather

Watch the weather

Your pre-match analysis isn’t complete if you don’t factor in the anticipated weather conditions for the game.

If you’re not sure why this can be relevant, allow us to explain:

  • Rain and snow can moisturize the field, reducing players’ skills and mobility
  • The wind can affect passing and kicking
  • A weak fog can impair the visual abilities of the players
  • The wind can also change the trajectory of the ball
  • A team that is used to playing in a hot zone will likely lose more matches in winter and vice versa
  • The temperature outside can change the ball’s air pressure
  • The wind can make it difficult for all players to perform, particularly if they want to play long passes

Is there a home-field advantage?

Is there a home-field advantage

Almost in every sport, many teams perform better at home, in their own stadiums, than when they are away. This is referred to as ‘home advantage.’

Several factors have been attributed to this. Some of them are:

  • Familiarity with the stadium features
  • Following regular training routines
  • The presence of their fans to cheer for them

While this may sound exaggerated, referees usually tend to favour their home team players.

However, teams don’t win at their home stadiums every time; else, the game would be predictable and boring.

So, while the home advantage is a good factor to consider when devising a football betting strategy, it should only be a part of your research.

Hedge your bets live

Hedge your bets live

Hedging a bet means placing a second bet against your initial wager to ensure that you win a profit or reduce your losses at the end of the match.

Let’s say you have placed bets on a game

When the match starts, your chosen team isn’t performing up to expectations.

You can use live sports betting to hedge your poor bets.

While this type of football betting strategy isn’t very profitable, it is optimal for those looking to reduce their losses and obtain at least a part of their bet money back.

Discipline is the keyword for betting profits

Discipline is the keyword for betting profits

The best football betting strategy is nothing without discipline.

Knowing when to be moderate and when to take risks is essential if you want to place favourable bets, and here’s how you can achieve this:

  • Decide your maximum wager size on each bet
  • Create and stick to your bankroll management plan
  • Discipline is the keyword for betting profits
  • Don’t rush your bets
  • Don’t chase your losses
  • Learn to take a break after a losing streak (3 losses)
  • Don’t bet based on passion or love for a team

Know your football bet types

Know your football bet types

How can you create the best football betting strategy if you’re not familiar with all bet types?

Luckily, we’re here to summarize the highlights of each one so that you can make an informed decision the next time you place a wager!

Point Spread

Spread example Meaning

Ottawa Redblacks -4.5

Ottawa to win by 5 points

Toronto Argonauts +4.5

Toronto not to lose by 5 points

The point spread is, simply put, the margin of victory a bookmaker predicts the favourite will have over the underdog in a match.

In the table above

A negative value of -4.5 means that Ottawa Redblacks is the favourite and is expected to win by an advantage of at least 5 points to cover the spread.

With a positive value of +4.5, Toronto is the underdog and can lose by 4 points or less to cover the spread.

Over Under

Over/Under example Meaning

Over 3.5

Over 4 points in the match

Under 3.5

Less than 4 points in the match

Over/under refers to the total number of points an oddsmaker predicts will be scored during the game.

The value is set by the bookmaker, and you bet higher (over) or lower (under) the number.

Whether the players go into overtime or not is irrelevant. The total of points is the final outcome of the match, so it doesn’t matter how long it takes to reach it.

Moneyline

Moneyline example Meaning Total payout for $100 bet

Toronto Argonauts   -160

Bet C$160 to win C$100 if Toronto wins

C$260

Montreal Alouettes  +140

Bet C$100 to win C$140 if Montreal wins

C$240

This type of betting can be used in place of the point spread. Here, the team you win is not bound by any number of goals, and is only required to win.

As usual, the minus (-) represents the favourite, while the positive sign (+) indicates the underdog.

It’s easiest to calculate Moneyline bets when you use 100 as the baseline value. This makes it easier to understand the information within the table above.

Player props

Apart from your standard Canadian football bets, there is also a wide variety of outcomes you can wager on: they are referred to as prop bets.

Here are some popular options:

  • Over/Under on total passing yards
  • Player to score the first touchdown
  • How many interceptions a quarterback will have
  • How many rushing hands will the top running back have

However, if a player you’re betting on doesn’t start, the bet counts as void.

Futures

Future bets are made on events that will end in the future, such as the league, Super Bowl, and The World Series championship.

The main characteristic of futures is that their odds may often change. The list of reasons includes:

  • Injuries, losses, trades, and any other such events
  • Free agent acquisitions
  • The sum of wagers placed on a certain team

Best football betting systems

Best football betting systems

Arbitrage betting

Arbitrage betting involves comparing the odds from multiple bookies and placing hedge bets that give you a certain payout risk-free.

In short, it is when you place more than two bets on the same event at more than two sportsbooks.

Even so, all bettors should keep in mind that even the best Canadian online casinos and bookies do not allow arbitrage betting, and will close your account if you employ it.

How to find arbitrage opportunities

  • Start by searching for arbitrage opportunities at sportsbooks manually
  • Check for arbitrage scanner services to see if they are scanning a particular bookmaker
  • Find the highest odds
  • Open Canadian football markets at several sportsbooks
  • Compare the odds of the markets
  • Place bets at X odds on a sportsbook
  • You can use an arbitrage calculator to check the amount you would need to wager on the other sportsbook(s)
  • You claim a risk-free bet

Value betting

Value betting is when you find odds that give you an edge over the bookie. You can also say it refers to capitalizing on “off odds” at a particular sportsbook.

When you find such odds, objectively access them and see whether the bookmaker has overvalued a bet, then you can place a wager.

However, you need to be objective and certain of your knowledge before banking on value bets.

Value betting in poker vs sports betting

If you are familiar with wagering on poker sites, then value betting may not be entirely new to you, as they are based on the same idea.

Value betting in poker simply refers to wagering as if you have a better hand than you actually do. Here are some of its main characteristics:

  • By doing so, you may get the opponent(s) at the table to start thinking they got a worse hand than yours
  • They may play along these lines and commit an error you can use to your advantage
  • However, note that value betting in sports is even more realistic and practical than poker because you are placing bets based on an objective assessment from multiple stats and figures

With the proper approach and a bit of patience, value betting can be very profitable.

Matched betting

Match betting means claiming a free bet, and placing a risk-free bet. It works by using free bets and other promotions to cover all outcomes of a match.

When you match-bet on college football, it can open you up to profits since it won’t matter which team wins the game.

As long as you’re cautious with your investments, this may be the safest betting option available.

Lay betting

Lay betting, in simple terms, refers to wagering on something not to happen.

For instance

If you place a lay bet on a football club, you will get a payout if the team loses or the game ends in a draw.

When you bet on a favourite, it means you are counter-betting on them. This strategy is common to betting exchanges. Here’s a more concrete example:

  • For instance, if you come across a Moneyline odds with BC Lions -160 and Edmonton Elks +120
  • If you lay BC Lions, it means you are betting on BC Lions not to win the match
  • A bet is settled as a winner if the BC Lions lose or draw the game

Where to bet on football?

Where to bet on football

The sportsbook you choose can make or break your entire experience.

Since we clarified the steps you should follow to develop a well-thought football betting strategy, we’d like to also help you choose a reliable sportsbook that provides equitable odds.

For more information on this topic, CasinoBonusCA created the table below.

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Betway

Yes

100% match up to $100

888 Casino

Yes

First $10 bet attracts $30 in Free bets

ComeOn Casino

No

100% bonus up to $100

Zet Casino

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First Deposit Bonus $150

bet365

Yes

Up to $30 in Bet Credits

Best football betting strategy for CFL

Best football betting strategy for CFL

Having researched and tested several football betting systems, we can rightly say that finding value is the best way to maximize your bets on the CFL.

Therefore, value betting is the best and most practical betting strategy. Here are more reasons why we believe value betting is the best football betting strategy.

  • It is simpler and cheaper to learn
  • You are not breaking any rule by using this strategy
  • It could give you an edge over the bookmaker
  • You can earn profit in the long run
  • Having more than one betting account is not compulsory

Enhance your value betting

The best way to implement value betting in your online betting strategy is to start by claiming a bonus at the sportsbook.

We believe that the sign-up casino bonuses Canada and no deposit offers are essential to having a top-notch sports betting experience.

This is why we exclusively recommend casinos that offer bonuses when you play their sportsbook options.